Traders were looking for a positive session as the market continues to edge higher but in today's session tech lagged.
Personal income/ spending report and earnings was in focus as well as oil prices. Oil prices sunk back down into the mid to upper 90's as traders gear-up for the next move in the March market.
The market continues to reward traders that are in stocks with another advance as the two month rally, of the year, continues.
Personal Income and Outlays data shows worker income rose 1 percent in January. Monday, February 28, 2011
Traders were looking for a neutral flat start and got a mostly negative day as the Middle East unrest, specifically Libya, and earnings was the focus for the session.
The Forecast Models indicated that today could be an important session for the stock market. All eyes were focused on the close as The Market Barometer afternoon model run changed the Bias to neutral from positive.
Libya is the latest worry in the middle East for traders as stocks continued moving lower from yesterdays sell off. Oil prices skyrocket causing more worries over how the economic recovery can proceed with inflation on a distant horizon and with oil prices surging higher as more Middle East countries could fall to the unrest.
The afternoon Market Barometer model run changed the Bias to neutral from positive. More worries are being conjured up as Libya's unrest appears to be spreading to other countries in the Mideast region taking oil prices even higher and stock markets lower. Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Stocks were sluggish most of the morning, ramping into positive territory in late morning trade, as oil prices began to improve and move higher, on Mideast worries as geopolitical turmoil spreads.
Two key economical data points were released today that gauge the economical recovery. The consumer price index (inflation gauge) rose and jobless first time claims (unemployment) rose as well. Even though last weeks initial claims rose, the initial claims chart continues to show a job market recovery.
The small cap market of stocks posted a nice gain today, while mixed economical data-points and geopolitical worries saw the major indexes eke out a small gain.
Consumer inflation data (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in January while The employment pictures (chart) continues to show improvement. Thursday, February 17, 2011
Earnings and deal making was the focus today as well as the continuing Egyptian unrest crises.
It would appear that nothing can get in front of this fright train that just keeps going. With 25 sessions completed, five were posted as negative, six as mixed, and fourteen as positive.
Today the Dow led stock higher as even China's tightening of monetary policy had little or no effect over the steaming U.S. stock market. Earnings are good and traders might just feel fine in driving stocks higher with no end in sight. Traders believe that this positive ness will continue, at least through earnings season.
The U.S. stock market will run out of steam sooner or later, the question is will the stock market rally continue. Tuesday, February 8, 2011
The Market Barometer close model changed the Barometer Leading Indicator (BLI) to neutral from positive last Monday, January 31, 2011.
Egypt unrest concerns and a not-so-good jobs report had little, if any, effect on stocks. If we didn't have the Egypt worries and if the jobs report was more in line with expectations, we might have had a ramping stock market instead of the inching along, as we have seen. One thing is real clear. A pullback is due and it will happen, sooner or later.
The BLI will stay at neutral for the time being. The forecast at CAUTION with a NEUTRAL BLI and a POSITIVE bias indicates continued upside movement can be expected for the short term.
Remember. Forecasts are good for market fundamentals; news can and will change market direction; forecasting cannot predict events with 100% certainty. Saturday, February 5, 2011
Egypt unrest, jobless new claims, productivity report, and earnings set the tone for a flat session. On deck is the all important nonfarm jobs report which shows how many jobs were created or lost for the month, as well as the unemployment-rate which is expected to drop slightly. U.S. stocks are overdue for a pullback and if the jobs report comes in short of expectations, stocks could make a beeline to negative territory. Last Monday the BLI was downgraded to neutral in anticipation of a pullback. The BLS released the productivity and cost report for Q-4 2010 and revisions to Q-3 2010. The Government reported initial jobless claims- unemployment- fell, keeping hopes alive for a continuing improving employment picture. Thursday, February 3, 2011
As goes January, so goes the year. They say. So if the next two weeks goes as the first two, that saying could translate into a very profitable year in the stock market. Earnings outlook and the Consumer Price (inflation) report was the focus today, as well as retail sales data.
Starting the year off on the right foot for investors as stocks continue the trip higher as traders pooh pooh the slow, most days, snails pace- traders like volatility. Some say we can look for more gain in the weeks and months to come but most marketeers are looking for a pullback.
Retail sales rose in December as consumers continue to buy stuff, helping the recovering economy. Core CPI: shelter, airline tickets, medical, and apparel prices rose in December; while recreation, house furnishings, and communication prices slipped in December. Headline CPI: Gas prices at the pump inflated consumer prices in December- food helped. JPMorgan beat most expectations but didn't move Futures but helped move stocks higher in the regular session. Friday, January 14, 2011
The broader market slipped in trading today while tech stocks continue to outperforming, as has been the case for the past two years.
Jobless first time claims and earnings was in focus for the session Thursday. Friday most likely will be a big day for the markets as job creation and unemployment rate will be the hot ticket for the session. Nonfarm payroll report for December is scheduled for release at 8:30a ET during the pre market and could cause significant volatility when markets open at 9:30a.
Unemployment initial claims continues to improve even though last weeks number increased by 18,000. The initial claims chart shows a definite trend lower that leads analysts to believe the job market is strengthening. Thursday, January 6, 2011
With North and South Korea concerns in the news, the EU continuing debt problems, a lack of positive or negative sentiment, and not to mention being this is a shortened holiday week with Christmas Saturday, many traders were on or leaving for holiday.
Short week saw Monday end flat with a mixed touch. Model data continues to indicate a mostly positive market going into the new year, albeit an inch at a time.
The Bush tax cut extension was signed into law which could help markets over the next couple of sessions. Monday, December 20, 2010
With a reasonable jobless new claims number this morning and a good looking chart that spells out jobs recovery in our future, stocks went underwater for most of the day but as usual climbed back to end mixed with the broader market and tech making gains.
Unemployment initial claims and earnings outlook was the focus for the session along with the Bush tax cut extension. Jobless initial claims chart continues to show progress in the jobs market.
New claims data was about the only economic data today which showed that the jobs market could be on the mend. Traders want more pointed data, the kind that just pops out at you, showing a bigger new claims drop. But some economist believe that wont happen and that this recovery will be one with a high unemployment rate for some time to come. Thursday, December 9, 2010
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1861-1944 US Average oil - 1945-1985 Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura - 1986-1999 Brent spot |
| Oil price per barrel $102.85 price delayed |
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